The Arab Spring Continues

November16th, 2010

Earlier this year protests erupted across North Africa and the Middle East after a Tunisian man named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself ablaze. Like most people, the demonstrators are seeking a better life. They are tired of corruption, failing economies, and dogmatic leadership. This sentiment is also echoed in the West. Violence and frustration has been clearly denoted in the United Kingdom, and the Occupy Wall Street movement currently occurring in the United States. This post, however, will focus solely on the recent events in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen.

Hosni Murbarak

Much has happened since my last post about Egypt. The once proud Hosni Mubarak has been charged with murder and taken to court. Lying on a stretcher, in poor health and within a cage, he watched as the proceedings deteriorate into an all out brawl. Lawyers on each side were literally exchanging punches instead of arguments. Despite his decades of harsh leadership many are still loyal to the ex-dictator, and there is much internal debate about his persecution.

Outside the courtroom the people continue to protest. Yes, this may seem odd to the outsider, but Egyptians are still weary of the interim military government. They are frustrated with the slow progress, and concerned about certain recent events. Since Mubarak left office thousands of military trials have taken place, and a number of people have been incarcerated.  Alaa Abd El Fattah, for example, is a blogger who has been jailed for encouraging violence against the military. According to a number of sources his incarceration is unwarranted.

There have also been vicious attacks between the Coptic Christian minority and the Islamic majority. Churches have been burned. Mosques have been bombed. One incident involved a group of Christian protesters seeking protection against future aggression to Church property.  Some vagabonds threw gasoline bombs at the protesters who were apparently blocking the streets. The confrontation occurred late Saturday, quickly escalated, and was not quelled until Sunday. Dozens were killed and hundreds were injured. These types of acts will continue to fan the flames of decent making the creation of a new Egyptian government increasing difficult.

Victorious!

In Libya, after months of intense fighting, the rebels have captured and killed Muammar Gaddafi with the support of NATO. My prediction that Europe and the United States would not intervene was thankfully wrong. Now comes the tough part--nation building. As the United States has learned in Afghanistan and Iraq this is not an easy task. The many factions in Libya will have to work together and unite for the good of the nation. This will be a slow messy process that could easily go astray by another strong military leader. Libyan's may also find tight purse strings in the West with the consistently dismal European and American economies. (China and the East may have to step in on this one.)

Yemen: Madness!

Now on to Yemen and Syria. In both nations foreign support boils down to harsh words and economic sanctions followed by inaction. Yemen is especially dis-concerning. Al Qaida has been very busy in this gulf nation at times taking over entire towns in the south. Add to this deadly mix an opposition force resisting a government crackdown, and you have a recipe for instability. Until the political house is in order people will continue to die and the economy will falter further. President Saleh has repeatedly stated that he will not transfer power, and until he does I fear this bloody mess will persist.

A similar scenario can be found in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad refuses to step down, and has initiated a brutal government crackdown. The United States, and other nations, have enacted sanctions against his rule with little effect. Even the Arab League has revoked Syria's membership, and if the crackdown does not cease within the next three days they too will issue economic sanctions. All the while the death tole and violence continues to increase.

Syrian Protesters

Western powers are unlikely to step into Yemen or Syria. President Obama will continue to use his favorite toy--drones--to take out whoever he sees fit. He will not commit American forces to another war after championing the withdrawal from Iraq--and hopefully soon Afghanistan. NATO is still dealing with Libya, and seems unlikely to shift their attention elsewhere. According to Al Jazeera, the UN has it's hand tied in regards to Syria because of Assad's strong relations with Russia and China. In Yemen, the UN continues to send myopic compromises that satisfy no one, and it is highly dubious that any serious action will be taken.

Boy o' boy what a mess. Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen will not see their situations improve anytime soon. This, however, is not unexpected. Nation building is a long difficult process that takes even longer when done under the guise of a democracy. With the right leadership these nations can join the West and East in Americanized Globalization; further shrinking the Gap.

I am thrilled to be witnessing such dramatic change from one of the most dogmatic parts of the world. I am also continually optimistic that the sacrifices of these protesters will eventually lead to a more prosperous Middle East/North Africa. Patience and perseverance are key. After all it took the United States dozens of wars and a civil rights movement (over 150 years) to get where it is today.