The Arab Spring Continues

November16th, 2010

Earlier this year protests erupted across North Africa and the Middle East after a Tunisian man named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself ablaze. Like most people, the demonstrators are seeking a better life. They are tired of corruption, failing economies, and dogmatic leadership. This sentiment is also echoed in the West. Violence and frustration has been clearly denoted in the United Kingdom, and the Occupy Wall Street movement currently occurring in the United States. This post, however, will focus solely on the recent events in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen.

Hosni Murbarak

Much has happened since my last post about Egypt. The once proud Hosni Mubarak has been charged with murder and taken to court. Lying on a stretcher, in poor health and within a cage, he watched as the proceedings deteriorate into an all out brawl. Lawyers on each side were literally exchanging punches instead of arguments. Despite his decades of harsh leadership many are still loyal to the ex-dictator, and there is much internal debate about his persecution.

Outside the courtroom the people continue to protest. Yes, this may seem odd to the outsider, but Egyptians are still weary of the interim military government. They are frustrated with the slow progress, and concerned about certain recent events. Since Mubarak left office thousands of military trials have taken place, and a number of people have been incarcerated.  Alaa Abd El Fattah, for example, is a blogger who has been jailed for encouraging violence against the military. According to a number of sources his incarceration is unwarranted.

There have also been vicious attacks between the Coptic Christian minority and the Islamic majority. Churches have been burned. Mosques have been bombed. One incident involved a group of Christian protesters seeking protection against future aggression to Church property.  Some vagabonds threw gasoline bombs at the protesters who were apparently blocking the streets. The confrontation occurred late Saturday, quickly escalated, and was not quelled until Sunday. Dozens were killed and hundreds were injured. These types of acts will continue to fan the flames of decent making the creation of a new Egyptian government increasing difficult.

Victorious!

In Libya, after months of intense fighting, the rebels have captured and killed Muammar Gaddafi with the support of NATO. My prediction that Europe and the United States would not intervene was thankfully wrong. Now comes the tough part--nation building. As the United States has learned in Afghanistan and Iraq this is not an easy task. The many factions in Libya will have to work together and unite for the good of the nation. This will be a slow messy process that could easily go astray by another strong military leader. Libyan's may also find tight purse strings in the West with the consistently dismal European and American economies. (China and the East may have to step in on this one.)

Yemen: Madness!

Now on to Yemen and Syria. In both nations foreign support boils down to harsh words and economic sanctions followed by inaction. Yemen is especially dis-concerning. Al Qaida has been very busy in this gulf nation at times taking over entire towns in the south. Add to this deadly mix an opposition force resisting a government crackdown, and you have a recipe for instability. Until the political house is in order people will continue to die and the economy will falter further. President Saleh has repeatedly stated that he will not transfer power, and until he does I fear this bloody mess will persist.

A similar scenario can be found in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad refuses to step down, and has initiated a brutal government crackdown. The United States, and other nations, have enacted sanctions against his rule with little effect. Even the Arab League has revoked Syria's membership, and if the crackdown does not cease within the next three days they too will issue economic sanctions. All the while the death tole and violence continues to increase.

Syrian Protesters

Western powers are unlikely to step into Yemen or Syria. President Obama will continue to use his favorite toy--drones--to take out whoever he sees fit. He will not commit American forces to another war after championing the withdrawal from Iraq--and hopefully soon Afghanistan. NATO is still dealing with Libya, and seems unlikely to shift their attention elsewhere. According to Al Jazeera, the UN has it's hand tied in regards to Syria because of Assad's strong relations with Russia and China. In Yemen, the UN continues to send myopic compromises that satisfy no one, and it is highly dubious that any serious action will be taken.

Boy o' boy what a mess. Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen will not see their situations improve anytime soon. This, however, is not unexpected. Nation building is a long difficult process that takes even longer when done under the guise of a democracy. With the right leadership these nations can join the West and East in Americanized Globalization; further shrinking the Gap.

I am thrilled to be witnessing such dramatic change from one of the most dogmatic parts of the world. I am also continually optimistic that the sacrifices of these protesters will eventually lead to a more prosperous Middle East/North Africa. Patience and perseverance are key. After all it took the United States dozens of wars and a civil rights movement (over 150 years) to get where it is today.

The Last Battleground of North America

Mexico is the last battleground in North America. An estimated 34,000 people have died since the government crackdown initiated by President Felipe Calderon. It all began with the best intentions. In December of 2006 he sent 6,500 troops into Michoacan in response to a series of nasty executions. Cartels responded to the arrests, and further government pressure, with increased violence using sophisticated weaponry like grenades, RPG's, Kevlar helmets, and IED's.

Lock and Loaded

The turmoil has elevated over the years, and frequently crosses the border. Drugs move easily across the two countries, and occasionally a murder will occur on the north side of the fence. Include the deaths related to drug use, and the American KIA count goes even higher. Now imagine living in the war torn towns of Mexico. Going to a night club and finding decapitated heads thrown on the dance floor. Or finding your family killed because you took up a job in law enforcement. These atrocities need to stop, and they're happening too close to home for my comfort.

America, this is the war in your backyard. Rather you like it or not you are already a participant. American addicts provide the demand for Mexican drugs. American manufacturers satisfy the armament demands of the Mexican cartels. Even the American recession provides a labor source. I was shocked to learn that a cartel employee was an Iraq veteran named Roberto Lopez. He couldn't find a legit job when he returned home, and working for the cartel supported his family. I thought our military was suppose to provide valuable training that could be applied to the private sector. When will American leaders take action against these important issues?

I choose not to include the photos with decapitations.

In my humble opinion two steps would help resolve this problem. (More may be needed.)


First, the inevitable troops withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq should be used to fuel an increased presence in Mexico. This would require an unprecedented amount of cooperation between Mexico and America. Canada should also be heavily included to help further diminish violence in North America. This can be done, and the more organized less corrupt military force would be the driving force.

Another huge issue stems from the average Mexican civilian trust of a foreign army. Historically the people of Mexico have not enjoyed being invaded, and the cartels can easily manipulate the masses against an occupying force. Our military would have to convince them that they are protected from the cartels threats. The good old win the hearts and minds idea. The combined power of civilian trust and government cooperation would severely challenge the drug cartels current operations. The progress towards this goal would be slow, and everyone would have to exercise great patience, but it is feasible.

The second major step is to address the American supply problem. This country distributes cash and guns to the cartels. This must stop. Popular suggestions include the legalization of certain drugs. This would facilitate local production and diminish the demand for Mexican imports. Job creation would see net increases related to production, distribution, and consumption. New laws would have to be written to ensure businesses acted responsibly, and children were protected/deterred from drug use. Mirroring liquor and pharmaceutical legislation would be a great start. Americas War on Drugs has failed. We must find a different way to deal with our drug addictions that doesn't involve prisons and cartels.

Cartel Territories

Government agencies should turn their attention away from the drug wars and focus more on the arms race. The ease at which the drug cartels buy weapons is appalling. The old Founding Fathers, Second Amendment, argument doesn't make sense in this scenario. We are providing our enemies, who live right next door, with the means to kill us. This happens all to often throughout American history, and will continue to happen for some time. When will the USA stop giving into greed, and strengthen the gun laws?

Ending the War on Drugs, and defeating the cartels will not be easy. Ideally the efforts to close the last battleground would lead to a more united North America. An example of cooperation that could far exceed the European Union. This, however, will not occur as long as the cartels are left unchecked.

Sources:

Wikipedia
WPR
LA Times
AP
CBS

A Rabble Rabble Rant

This is just a rant. Random shit that comes to mind. I might even flush some of it out one day.

The United States is a young impatient nation. Many don't even know their own history, or care to learn it.

The US of A has been the sole super power for twenty years, and has played an extraordinary role in shaping the world over the last ninety. Be patient. A few hundred years ago starvation made the head lines. Now it's fat people with health problems.

The US of A has been extremely wealthy throughout our history. We have things that most nations don't even consider producing because they are not as affluent (and bored). Like many things in life the wealth is a blessing and a curse. We have great lives in America at the expense of many people both at home and abroad. Yet we also share the wealth. Grey this area is.

As long as humans are violent there will not be peace. Los Angeles riots when the Lakers win championships, and beat up Giant fans at Dodger stadium. This occurs in an affluent society with enforceable laws, and are some of the minor threats we've seen across America. Wars like Afghanistan and Iraq are chalk full of atrocities, but the end results may be worth the price. The revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa are no less violent, but hopefully the results will be better.

World War II is the ultimate example of what good can come from war. That event brought the world into the future that is today. Nation based warfare is at an all time low, and has not involved super powers directly since the Korean War. Nuclear deterrence and globalization are huge contributing factors to this--both got a good kick in the ass after WWII. Millions died and any war is horrible. This doesn't mean it should be ignored. War/violence will occur it is best to learn about it and contain it. Most impressively the rising global middle class has changed the outlook of war. Gang warfare is what we are experiencing, but on a much larger scale.

America should starting sending bills to all the nations that benefit from our military.

Fox news lies to your face. Everyone else beats around the bush. Only a handful actually contribute to the news. CNN tells you what's on Twitter, and invents stupid gimmicky stories. Buzzer beaters, and text voting distract from real reporting--even if that gets less ratings. I hear news shows make plenty of ad revenue anyway. MSNBC made me laugh when an anchor told a talking head to stop giving so many details cause it gets confusing....really? At least Jon Stewart will have plenty of material until he's ready to retire.

I like good food and beer. Play videogames, and attend drum n' bass shows frequently. I can fly 3,000 miles in less then six hours. I have indoor plumbing, and don't have to grow my own food. Even if I had no money I could still get food. If America can be so good to me, and so many other people, then how evil can it truly be? Bad people, stupid decisions, and all sorts of things do occur. Don't stop fighting the bad, but remember what your fighting for. Don't forget the good stuff too.

Libya's Bloody Mess

Last month I talked about the Jasmine Revolution that started in Tunisia, and spread across the Arab word--most notably Egypt. The revolts continue to this day, and in Libya things have taken a turn for the worse.

Gaddafi

Violence has been wide spread throughout the country for weeks. Their leader, Muammar Gaddafi, appears to have as much sanity as Charlie Sean with the looks of a bloated Michael Jackson. His television rants are sporadic and disconnected. He has hired African mercenaries to kill his own people. Fighter jet pilots given orders to bomb civilians have defected to other nations--with their planes. His people!?! They're stealing tanks, anti-air guns, and more in an attempt to bring about change through force. The opposition has also captured a number of key positions throughout the country; including some of the oil production facilities.

Airstrike inbound.

The international community is still debating if they should intervene starting with enforcing a no-fly zone. Ideally Europe would step in, and take their share of the nation building. More then likely this will not be the case. Europeans love to ignore Africa, and the nation with the most interest, Italy, is not up to the task. The United States may step in, but nobody seems to have the stomach for it on Pennsylvania Avenue. Morally it's the right thing to do. Militarily, politically, and financially it's not the best idea. This conundrum gives plenty of  material for all those talking heads and their twenty-four hour news cycle.

Meanwhile, Gaddafi is still looking for his marbles while vigorously denouncing the revolution. Military clashes are adding to the death toll, and to the rapidly rising oil prices. This is what I feared when I first saw the protests in Egypt. A long drawn out revolution that is more accurately labeled as a civil war.

Power to the Arab People

The following are my thoughts on, and description of, the recent events in North Africa and the Middle East. My video sources are from CNN and Al Jazeera. Written sources are Wikipedia, TIME magazine, The Wall Street Journal, and Dr. Thomas P. M. Barnett's website Wikistrat.

 Sidi Bouzid, where Mohammed Bouazizi

set himself on fire and sparked a revolution.

On December 17th, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi of Tunisia set himself a blaze after an altercation with a female municipal officer. According to Wikipedia his wares were confiscated and he was personally humiliated. Obviously his feelings were more complicated then that. Publicly setting oneself on fire is not done lightly, but can have a tremendous impact. We have seen this before in Vietnam when monks burned themselves to denounce the atrocities of war. This tragedy, however, may have a far greater impact in one of the worlds most oppressive regions.

Egypt

Bouazizi's horrific act triggered protests throughout the Arab world. Algeria, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Yemen all experienced some sort of revolt. In his own country Bouazizi's actions lead to the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali--ending a twenty-three year term. According to Fareed Zakaria's article in the February edition of Time magazine, all of the national leaders scrambled to placate the masses. Algeria and Libya cut taxes on basic food goods. Syrian leaders banned social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. In Yemen, President Saleh promised he would not seek re-election in 2013, and King Abdullah II of Jordan abolished the Cabinet and appointed a new Prime Minister--in addition to cutting taxes.

Then there's Egypt and soon to be Ex-President Hosni Mubarak. For thirty years he has lead an authoritarian regime while simultaneously providing stability to a hostile Middle East. The later granted billions in dollars of American military aide, and a tenuous peace treaty with Israel. The former repressed, tortured, and killed the Egyptian populace.

Egypt

After eighteen days of protest the people can proudly say, "No Longer!" Hundreds died, but thousands never surrendered. Organizing via social media sites they remained vigilant, and considering the circumstances violence was minimal. The Egyptian Army played an important role, and did something almost unthinkable. A standing army just stood around instead of killing people. Mubarak attempted to squash the rebellion with speeches, internet blackouts, American made Tear Gas and mounted police forces. Resistance, however, was futile. Mubarak handed over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces who will manage the countries affairs until an election is held.

Now the world anxiously awaits for results. What will happen to a region bursting with potential democracies? Tunisia and Egypt will never be the same. Hopefully Iraq and Afghanistan will result in democracies via the external forces of an American invasion. Other authoritarian regimes in the Arab world are scrambling to maintain control. What does this mean for Western interests?

Egypt after Mubarak steps down.

The United States is walking the tight rope. The moral principles entrenched in The Constitution, and so elegantly stated in the Declaration of Independence, should have us all gun ho about democracy in the Middle East. The concern lies in where a democracy leads. If the people of Egypt bring to power radical Islamic fundamentalists, then there may be major security issues in that region. The most popular example of revolution gone wrong (aka doesn't make the West happy) is Iran back in 1979 when the people brought to power Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

At the moment the Egyptian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood is getting a lot of press. They were a repressed minority group under Mubarak who have been the most organized presences throughout the protests. This, however, does not mean they have enough sway with the Egyptian people to win a land slide election. Dr. Thomas Barnett, and his team at Wikistrat, argue Egypt's currently resembles Turkey more then Iran. I personally believe the masses will be more focused on economic growth and reform. The power of Americanized globalization and the demands of an aspiring young middle class will hopefully lead to a more prosperous world economy, and squash the backwards ideals found in religious fundamentalism.

Egypt

Israel may also have new concerns because Mubarak's key role in keeping the peace is now gone. If the Arab world unites against the Jewish people like they did back in 1967, then things will get bloody fast. Once again my optimism remains strong this worst case scenario will not occur. Neither side will prosper from an all out war, and the injection of fresh blood may bury old quarrels. Still expect much speculation and fear mongering from war hawks on both sides.

The final major Western player is Europe. Their collective response is not universal, but their primary concern is escalated local terrorists attacks. In the wake of the Russian airport attack this fear is justifiable. There is a possibility that a power vacuum in North Africa and the Middle East will provide a breeding ground for Al Qaeda like organizations. I do not believe the people of Egypt will fall prey incoherent beliefs of such groups. Al Qaeda does best in run down, unconnected, nations where the people seek a scapegoat for their ills (much like gangs in the Untied States). There are, however, other Arab nations experiencing protests that may prove otherwise.

Events are moving rapidly in the Middle East, and the long term consequences are still unknown. Despite the uncertainty I am absolutely enthralled by these revolutions. What will the future hold? How will the West react? What role will rising powers like China and India play? How will externally changed Iraq differ from internally altered Egypt? Truly these are amazing occurrences that will forever change the world, and the optimistic person inside of me says it's for the better.