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Sidi Bouzid, where Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire and sparked a revolution. |
On December 17th, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi of Tunisia set himself a blaze after an altercation with a female municipal officer. According to Wikipedia his wares were confiscated and he was personally humiliated. Obviously his feelings were more complicated then that. Publicly setting oneself on fire is not done lightly, but can have a tremendous impact. We have seen this before in Vietnam when monks burned themselves to denounce the atrocities of war. This tragedy, however, may have a far greater impact in one of the worlds most oppressive regions.
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| Egypt |
Bouazizi's horrific act triggered protests throughout the Arab world. Algeria, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Yemen all experienced some sort of revolt. In his own country Bouazizi's actions lead to the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali--ending a twenty-three year term. According to Fareed Zakaria's article in the February edition of Time magazine, all of the national leaders scrambled to placate the masses. Algeria and Libya cut taxes on basic food goods. Syrian leaders banned social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. In Yemen, President Saleh promised he would not seek re-election in 2013, and King Abdullah II of Jordan abolished the Cabinet and appointed a new Prime Minister--in addition to cutting taxes.
Then there's Egypt and soon to be Ex-President Hosni Mubarak. For thirty years he has lead an authoritarian regime while simultaneously providing stability to a hostile Middle East. The later granted billions in dollars of American military aide, and a tenuous peace treaty with Israel. The former repressed, tortured, and killed the Egyptian populace.
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| Egypt |
After eighteen days of protest the people can proudly say, "No Longer!" Hundreds died, but thousands never surrendered. Organizing via social media sites they remained vigilant, and considering the circumstances violence was minimal. The Egyptian Army played an important role, and did something almost unthinkable. A standing army just stood around instead of killing people. Mubarak attempted to squash the rebellion with speeches, internet blackouts, American made Tear Gas and mounted police forces. Resistance, however, was futile. Mubarak handed over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces who will manage the countries affairs until an election is held.
Now the world anxiously awaits for results. What will happen to a region bursting with potential democracies? Tunisia and Egypt will never be the same. Hopefully Iraq and Afghanistan will result in democracies via the external forces of an American invasion. Other authoritarian regimes in the Arab world are scrambling to maintain control. What does this mean for Western interests?
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| Egypt after Mubarak steps down. |
The United States is walking the tight rope. The moral principles entrenched in The Constitution, and so elegantly stated in the Declaration of Independence, should have us all gun ho about democracy in the Middle East. The concern lies in where a democracy leads. If the people of Egypt bring to power radical Islamic fundamentalists, then there may be major security issues in that region. The most popular example of revolution gone wrong (aka doesn't make the West happy) is Iran back in 1979 when the people brought to power Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
At the moment the Egyptian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood is getting a lot of press. They were a repressed minority group under Mubarak who have been the most organized presences throughout the protests. This, however, does not mean they have enough sway with the Egyptian people to win a land slide election. Dr. Thomas Barnett, and his team at Wikistrat, argue Egypt's currently resembles Turkey more then Iran. I personally believe the masses will be more focused on economic growth and reform. The power of Americanized globalization and the demands of an aspiring young middle class will hopefully lead to a more prosperous world economy, and squash the backwards ideals found in religious fundamentalism.
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| Egypt |
Israel may also have new concerns because Mubarak's key role in keeping the peace is now gone. If the Arab world unites against the Jewish people like they did back in 1967, then things will get bloody fast. Once again my optimism remains strong this worst case scenario will not occur. Neither side will prosper from an all out war, and the injection of fresh blood may bury old quarrels. Still expect much speculation and fear mongering from war hawks on both sides.
The final major Western player is Europe. Their collective response is not universal, but their primary concern is escalated local terrorists attacks. In the wake of the Russian airport attack this fear is justifiable. There is a possibility that a power vacuum in North Africa and the Middle East will provide a breeding ground for Al Qaeda like organizations. I do not believe the people of Egypt will fall prey incoherent beliefs of such groups. Al Qaeda does best in run down, unconnected, nations where the people seek a scapegoat for their ills (much like gangs in the Untied States). There are, however, other Arab nations experiencing protests that may prove otherwise.
Events are moving rapidly in the Middle East, and the long term consequences are still unknown. Despite the uncertainty I am absolutely enthralled by these revolutions. What will the future hold? How will the West react? What role will rising powers like China and India play? How will externally changed Iraq differ from internally altered Egypt? Truly these are amazing occurrences that will forever change the world, and the optimistic person inside of me says it's for the better.
